Time to Balance Out the Crazyness

Okay, so maybe I should add something sane to the portfolio, like say, consumer staples. The speculative plays turned out to be a good exercise in market timing, and the portfolio is back in the green, and the market is perhaps a bit high on a bear market rally, so I should add something that is stable and won't kill me if the market heads back down. Some of this data is a few days old now, but oh well, I don't want to go back and look up the ratios again.

WMT walmart 2.19% ***** hi div growth PE 14.46 PB 3.8 Beta: .21 ANALYSTS:1.83 mod buy
CL colgate 3.08% ***** growth PE 16.02 PB ?16 Beta .6 ANALYSTS: 2.07 outperform
PG proctor/gamble 3.45 ***** growth PE 12.84 PB ?2.27 Beta .63 ANALYSTS:2.53
KFT kraft 5.24 *** growth PE 18.12 PB 1.45 Beta .66 ANALYSTS: 2.47
CAG con-agra 5.21 3 yrs ago cut PE 13.55 PB 14.43 Beta .68 ANALYSTS: 3
DD Dupont 7.64 slow growth PE 8.29 PB 7.21 Beta 1.19 ANALYSTS: 2.5

PEP pepsi 3.48 *****
16/20 3/5yr div growth, 50% payout ratio, 39% ave 5 yr
PE 14.86 PB 14.46 Beta .58 ANALYSTS:2 outperform

KO Coca-Cola 3.9 *****
10.6/11.1 div growth rate 3/5 yr 60% payout ratio average 5 yr 55%
PE 16.76 PB 12.1 Beta .57 ANALYSTS: 1.92 outpreform

CVS caremark 1.15 growth recently PE 12.07 PB 1.15 Beta .81 ANALYSTS: 1.62 mod buy

GIS *** 3.65 steady growth PE 14.73 PB 3.32 Beta .35 ANALYSTS: 1.82 mod buy
7.1/8.04 3/5 yr div growth, 45% payout ratio average 5yr 43% 5yr ave yield 2.5%

K 3.72 growth PE 12.41 PB 9.76 Beta .45 ANALYSTS: 1.8 mod buy
14/7.8 3/5 yr growth, 54% payout ratio, average 5 yr 47% 5yr ave yield 2.6%

At some point I started using PB instead of Tangible PB, which has skewed these numbers a bit. I decided that since some did not list a tangible PB I would just use the PB value... but some of these are tangible values (the high ones) and I am too lazy to go back and change them... so there. I stated out PEP, KO, GIS, and K a bit more than normal because I wanted to be able to compare them, i only want one cereal company and one cola company.

Oh, and on a side note I would like to add a position in MMM if it looks viable. I had been looking at MMM and GE as two large conglomerates, and MMM certainly looks more appealing than GE at the moment (no dividend cut!).

MMM 4.1% yield ***** 6% 3yr div growth rate
PE 10.07 PB 3.45 Beta .63 ANALYSTS: 2.6 hold

So, most of these companies above are rather big names, and that is good! Hopefully I won't have to worry too much about shooting myself in the foot here.

Okay, so, 1yr chart. Everyone outperforms, especially WMT and KFT. There is one exception: DD gets the stuffing kicked out of it. I should probably look into that.

6months: ditto, KO better than kraft, closer grouping (less time to spread).

5yr chart: a bit more interesting, only GIS, PEP, and K seem to outperform consistently.

I looked into DD's financial statements: I bet the fact that they had a rather negative EPS last quarter accounts for the large stock price pummeling. Also, large jump in other liabilities and large drop in other equity- I think I'll stay away from that one as I'm not sure whats going on.

I think I will take GIS and PEP based on payout ratios, long term div growth, and the 5 yr chart. I also like KFT and WMT. PG and CL also seem to have preformed well. I have mixed feelings about CAG, as it has high yields but it seems to track the market, not beat it. With a 5% yield however, I guess that may be acceptable.

This is the first list I made where I didn't immediatly see lots of problems to throw out! I think just start small 10k positions in PEP,GIS,KFT,WMT,PG, and CL. That should provide some stability to compensate for the shipping and real estate segments of the portfolio.

Oh... what about MMM? It's chart doesn't look very impressive over the last few years, although it preformed well several years back, making the ten year chart look good. It has been paying dividends forever however... but it doesn't grow them very fast or normally have a very high yield. I guess I just don't see much motivation for out performance, it will probably recover with the market as a whole.

Okay, next time maybe I will make an update on what positions are held and their profit status. Or maybe not. I dunno.

Remember: I don't know jack about investing don't base any decisions on my nonsense!