Thursday, March 5, 2009

Even More Speculation

Okay, might as well buy some REIT's while I'm buying things that have had the crap beaten out of them.

HPT 33% - div higher than EPS expect cut to about 5% yield
PE 8.66 PB .35 Beta 1.5 ANALYSTS: 2 Outperform Market Cap:853M

NRF 72%! Expect cut!? Looks like they sold something big off to pay down debt? Abnormally large EPS and drop in liabilities?...
PE .11!! PB .05!! Beta 1.85 ANALYSTS: 2.57 hold Market Cap: 87M

UHT 9.54% (saneish- still probably will be halved... low EPS)
PE 19.98! PB 2.16 Beta .72! ANALYSTS: none Market Cap: 307M

O 10.88% (again div above EPS-halved?)PE 18.27 PB 1.15 Beta .97
ANALYSTS:2.58 hold Market Cap: 1.6B

IRC 16% again div>EPS expect drop to 5%ish PE 13.75 PB 1.4 Beta 1.28
ANALYSTS: 2.75 hold Market Cap:406M

My initial impulse is to take the stocks that have managed to retain a reasonable PE ratio, as the market knows more than I do about RIETS. Prehaps I should just look into an ETF for this... but why do that when it's not real money anyhow!

Charts!
6months: O and UHT outperformed. NRF was beasted.

2yr: Again O and UHT outperform. NRF and HPT get decimated.

Well, the charts and the ratios give me a good feeling about O and UHT. HPT has a good analyst recommendation and is not exactly a lightweight with its 800M market cap, so I'm tempted to say its too big to fail- but I haven't actually looked into that at all so I can't! They did recently beat expectations and post a rise in 4th quarter profits however. I suppose I don't really have any better ideas for RIETs and am too lazy to look around. I'll toss 10k at each of these and I can fill out the rest of my RIET position later. I just want to get a toehold in while the market is going to heck.


EDIT: I found one more nice looking candidate.

ESS 7.47% raised dividend, dividend achiever, still a bit low EPS however
PE 26 PB 1.5 Beta 1.08 Analysts 2.2 outperform

On the chart it outperformed until recently, where it took a beating. Ratios seem strong and dividend increase is a good sign. I think I will buy in a 10k position here as well.

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