Thursday, August 13, 2009

Telecom

I think this is an area I have been missing out so far- but no longer!

Telefonica S.A (TEF)
Yield: 5.47% 30% div growth rate 31% payout ratio
Beta: .81 PE: 10.48 PB: 3.9 (std not tang) Analysts: 2.0

Vodafone Group Plc (VOD)
Yield: 8.04%, 27% growth rate, !132% payout ratio red flag
Beta: PE: 22.43 PB: 6.2 (.81 std) Analysts: 1.6??

TU/TSE/T.To Telus *** (confusing, voting and nonvoting shares not sure I get it)
Yield: 6%, 25% growth, 56% payout ratio
Beta: .99 PE: 9.72 PB: 1.39 (std) Analysts: 2.53

BCE
Yield: 6.45% growth rate: ? cut last year makes this show negative, in reality- approx 10%? payout: 81%
Beta: .98 PE: 18.4 PB: 4.21 (1.4) Analysts: 2.55

T (AT&T)
Yield: 6.47 3% growth rate 80% payout
Beta: .66 PE:12.96 PB:1.53(std) Analysts: 2.12

VZ Verizon
Yield: 5.93 3% growth, 86% payout
Beta: .62 PB: 14.63 PE: 2.07 ANALYSTS: 2.18

FTE France Telecom S.A.
6.67%, recent cut, 90% payout
Beta: .63 PE: 11.54 PB:1.55 (std) ANALYSTS: 3

TI Telecom Italia SpA
4.22% yield, recent cut, 90% payout
Beta: .92 PE: 10.73 PB: .79 (std)ANALYSTS: 3.5

From payout and PE ratios, I am liking TU/TSE:T/T.To and TEF initial. VOD confuses me as it as a ridiculous payout ratio but a good analyst rating. AT&T seems like a stable, if somewhat boring, bet.

Now, chart time!

3mo: TEF, TU, TI and BCE outperform. VZ and T flat.
6mo: TEF outperforms. TSE under performs- TU does not do as poorly.
1yr: BCE drops like a stone, recovers some but still under performs. Most telecom companies do not fall as much as the S&P- thus not many have outperformed recently. Again TEF performs quite well. TI also outperforms, but rather jumpily.
5yr: TU/TSE outperforms initially, then slumps. TEF does the same, but recovers faster. VZ seems to under perform, as does TI.

TEF and TU seem to look rather good on the charts as well as on the ratios. T seems to trace the market for the most part- which isn't bad considering the dividend. I am not sure what the draw for VOD is- I see nothing to make me believe its 2.0 analyst rating.

I think I will add 15k TEF and TU positions, as well as a T position. However, I think I am going to look at technicals a bit and try to time it a bit better this time.

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