Sunday, December 14, 2008

Utilities 2: Speculative High Yeilds

VE yield 12
CPL yield 13
CIG yield ?10-14
BIP yield 8.7

Where to start? Ratios and analyst rankings I guess.

VE
PE 9.52 PB ?1.22 Analyst recommendations: 2 buys 1 underperform... kinda inconclusive
CPL
PE 12 PB 3 Analyst recommendations: 2 underpreforms of 5.. not so hot
CIG
PE ?? PB 2.22 Analyst: 4 buys 1 no opinion... suprising
BIP
PE ?? PB ?.55 cheap? Analyst: 2.75 no sells... not too bad considering

So far I am a bit biased towards CIG and BIP, but I think I should investigate the balance sheets a bit more closely for these ones. Also, maybe I can find out what the payout ratios are for these companies, as I didn't do that earlier. I think I can pretty much drop CPL off my list at this point.

So, balance sheets- anything notable that I can understand?
Not much info on Reuters about BIP. Maybe I should try another site.
VE shows revenue growth and not too huge a percent of cash flow as dividends. No strange 2007 drop like I saw in the earlier utilities.
CIG shows revenue growth but income decreases. A hell of a lot of its cash flow goes to dividends.

It seems BIP hasn't been around long, hence the lack of data. I think I will stay away from it for now, although the yield is tempting. I'll keep it on the radar and check back after a few years maybe. Then again, if it grows hugely, I will be sad.

CIG looks good from the analysts, but I don't like the cash flow all going to dividends. I'm going to have to pass.

VE seems to still be in the running however. Time to look at the charts.

Over the last few months, CIG and CPL have fared better than the S&P, unlike VE and BIP. Hmmm, thats seems to contradict my thoughts... but Mr. Market isn't so logical.
On the 2 and 5 yr charts, CIG and CPL also look better than VE. However, at the moment VE has a PB of 1.22, suggesting it dosen't have much more downside perhaps.

To be honest, this hasn't presented me a clear solution. I'm going to go back and check CPL's books too. Seem they have revenue and income up, but also pay a good chunk of cashflow in dividends, not as crazy much as CIG however.

So, time to sum up:

BIP: too small, too new- not going to touch
CIG: analysts say buy, but it is paying alot of cashflow in dividends
CPL: analysts say sell, and it is paying alot of cashflow in dividends
VE: inconclusive analyst rankings, low PB, beaten down- but previous history isn't so great.

Today, I think I will ignore history, and add VE. Why? The balance sheet looked okay to my untrained eye, and the PB ratio is low, suggesting a lowish price. It is near its years low. And, while the dividend yield is high, its not a huge chunk of cash flow. My theory is that past performance does not determine future performance, and so I am going to buy in (a little).

Adding a 10k position of VE to the portfolio for now. It seems a bit speculative, but I think I justified it a bit.

Oh, and as always,
disclosure: I'm a poor college kid who doesn't own stock and doesn't have a clue don't take my advice sheesh!

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